when to run


Now · East River Esplanade · 11:23 AM ET
Heat Stress · WBGT
76°F Low heat stress
What is WBGT?

Wet-bulb globe temperature folds temperature, humidity, sun load, and wind into one number for how hard heat works a moving body. It is the standard the National Weather Service and OSHA use for outdoor exertion — watch it, not the plain temperature. Two 75° mornings can run worlds apart; WBGT tells them apart.

See how every metric is read ↓

Temperature 79°F in the shade
Dew Point 70°F oppressive at a jog
UV 6 moderate · AQI 65 moderate (PM2.5) · humidity 74% · wind S 12 · rain 42%

Thunder is forecast from 4 PM to 10 PM, which takes today's window with it. Skip it. The evening slot tomorrow is off the table. Run before work tomorrow, 5–10 AM.

Before work: Wed 5–11 AM · After work: Tue 4–8 PM
Dawn: 70–74° low · UV 4 · AQI 70 moderate — Evening is out — thunderstorms in the forecast

Next 48 hours

11 AM Tue → 10 AM Thu
WBGT, temperature and dew point for the next 48 hours on one shared Fahrenheit axis Line chart from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 AM Thursday. WBGT is drawn in its heat-band ink, temperature as a dashed neutral line, dew point dotted. Hatched bars along the base count the chance of rain, with bolt marks at thunder hours. FLOOD WATCH — UNTIL 8 PM ✕ THUNDERSTORMS ✕ THUNDERSTORMS before work Wed 5–11 AM 12P 3P 6P 9P 12A 3A 6A 9A 12P 3P 6P 9P 12A 3A 6A 9A TUE JUL 28 WED JUL 29 THU JUL 30 sets 8:15 rises 5:50 sets 8:14 rises 5:50 42% 42% 42% 60% 60% 60% 78% 78% 78% 94% 94% 94% 68% 68% 68% 61% 61% 61% 49% 49% 49% 61% 61% 61% 65% 65% 65% 65% 76° low 77° low 70° low 77° low 67° low 72° low
temperature · dew point · chance of rain, bolt marks thunder
every other numeral: good · fair · poor

Hourly ledger · 48 h

Hour-by-hour conditions for the next 48 hours at East River Esplanade
TimeWBGTTempDew pointRHUVAQIWindRain
TUETuesday July 28 · todayrises 5:49 · sets 8:15
11 AM76° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast79°70°74%665S 1242%
12 PM77° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast80°70°72%687S 13 g1842%
1 PM77° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast79°71°77%487S 14 g2142%
2 PM76° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast78°71°79%288SSE 15 g2360%
3 PM76° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast79°71°77%388SSE 15 g2460%
— thunder moves in around 4 PM —
4 PM75° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast77°71°82%089SSE 15 g2460%
5 PM74° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast76°71°85%089SSE 15 g2478%
6 PM74° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast76°71°85%288SSE 15 g2578%
7 PM72° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast74°70°87%088SSE 15 g2578%
8 PM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°70°90%088S 14 g2594%
— sunset 8:15 —
9 PM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°70°90%086SSE 14 g2394%
— storms pass by 10 PM —
10 PM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°70°90%084SSE 13 g2294%
11 PM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°70°90%082SSE 12 g2068%
WEDWednesday July 29rises 5:50 · sets 8:14
12 AM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°70°90%080SSE 10 g1868%
1 AM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast72°70°93%078SSE 9 g1768%
2 AM71° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast72°70°93%076SE 961%
3 AM70° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast71°70°97%074SSE 861%
4 AM70° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast71°70°97%072S 761%
5 AMbefore work70°71°70°97%070S 649%
— sunrise 5:50 —
6 AM70°70°70°100%069SSW 649%
7 AM71°71°70°97%068W 749%
8 AM71°72°70°93%166W 729%
9 AM72°73°70°90%365WNW 729%
10 AM74°75°70°84%464WNW 829%
11 AM76°77°70°79%663NW 825%
12 PM77°78°70°76%761WNW 925%
1 PM77°77°70°79%760WNW 925%
2 PM77° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast78°70°76%758WNW 949%
3 PM76° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast77°70°79%657WNW 1049%
— thunder moves in around 4 PM —
4 PM75° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast77°70°79%456WNW 1049%
5 PM74° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast77°70°79%358WNW 1061%
6 PM73° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast75°69°82%265WNW 1061%
7 PM72° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast74°69°84%165NW 1061%
8 PM70° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°68°84%058NW 965%
— sunset 8:14 —
9 PM70° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°68°84%052NW 965%
— storms pass by 10 PM —
10 PM70° ✕ thunderstorms in the forecast73°68°84%052NW 965%
11 PM70°72°68°87%052NW 965%
THUThursday July 30rises 5:50 · sets 8:13
12 AM69°71°68°90%051NW 965%
1 AM69°71°67°87%051WNW 865%
2 AM68°70°67°90%050WNW 847%
3 AM68°69°67°93%050WNW 947%
4 AM67°68°67°97%049NW 1047%
5 AM67°68°67°97%048NW 1247%
— sunrise 5:50 —
6 AM68°69°67°93%048NW 1247%
7 AM69°70°67°90%048NW 1247%
8 AM69°71°67°87%049NW 1233%
9 AM70°72°67°84%049NNW 1233%
10 AM72°73°68°84%150NNW 1233%
How every metric is read
WBGT — heat stress

Wet-bulb globe temperature folds temperature, humidity, sun load, and wind into one heat-stress number — the standard for outdoor athletics. It omits your fitness, acclimatization, and pace. The words follow the National Weather Service bands: low, elevated, moderate, high, extreme — a veto at 90°F and above.

These figures are estimated from the gridpoint forecast, not measured. A black-globe sensor on the course reads the real thing and can sit a few degrees higher in full sun on asphalt — treat a forecast 88° as “maybe 90° on the asphalt.”

source: NWS gridpoint forecast (estimated, not a station measurement) · fetched 11:19 AM ET
Dew point — humidity

The absolute moisture in the air, which sets how well sweat can evaporate. Below 55°F is comfortable; at 70°F and above evaporation stalls and heart rate drifts up at any pace. It omits temperature itself; that is WBGT’s job.

source: NWS gridpoint forecast · fetched 11:19 AM ET
Relative humidity

The same moisture as the dew point, read against the temperature — so it climbs toward dawn even while the absolute moisture holds steady. A high-RH dawn is not wetter air than a moderate-RH afternoon; it is cooler air holding the same water. Use dew point to judge sweat; use RH to expect fog and soaked grass at first light.

source: NWS gridpoint forecast · fetched 11:19 AM ET
UV index

The EPA scale for sunburn speed on exposed skin — at UV 9, damage begins in about 15 minutes. It says nothing about heat: a dawn window can read UV 0–2 while the same day’s noon hits 10. Shade, cover, and sunscreen change your exposure, not the index.

source: Open-Meteo model (forecast) · fetched 11:03 AM ET
AQI — air quality

The EPA Air Quality Index, taken from the worst nearby monitor and its dominant pollutant — a protective reading, not an average. Moderate air is fine for most runners; unusually sensitive people may shorten hard sessions. 201 and above vetoes the hour.

now: EPA AirNow monitor (measured) · fetched 11:21 AM ET · hourly forecast: CAMS model (modeled) · fetched 11:21 AM ET
Wind & gusts

Sustained speed plus gusts, with the vane in the ledger showing where it blows from. In heat, wind helps — it moves saturated air off your skin. In cold it cuts; the wind-chill veto sits at −10°F. It omits direction changes along a loop; see the route note.

source: NWS gridpoint forecast · fetched 11:19 AM ET
Alerts, storms & vetoes

Advisories are cautions, not stop orders: an advisory banners the page but strikes nothing out. Vetoes are different — lightning at 30% thunder probability or more, WBGT at 90°F and above, or AQI past 200 remove the hour from play with the reason named in the row, never averaged away. Rain alone rarely cancels a run.

source: NWS alerts · fetched 11:22 AM ET · thunder: NWS probabilityOfThunder · fetched 11:19 AM ET

ClothingOrdinary kit: shorts and a light shirt cover it.